The Navajo Nation and Hopi Reservation are extreme food deserts with only 13 … Ethel Branch needs your support for Navajo & Hopi Families COVID-19 Relief Fund
Consider donating to a charitable cause in your community if you have the means, or finding ways to donate your time.
In my case, I'm looking to go to the Four Corners as a medical/pharmacy volunteer.
Areas like the Navajo Nation are fundamentally handicapped when it comes to a society-disrupting pandemic: many people have no running water, have multiple high-risk individuals in the household, and have very little access to groceries and fresh food. So while most of us are probably uncomfortable but very much okay right now, some people are on the brink trying to avoid this.
Among the 311 nursing homes with positive cases, there have been 3,011 residents infected. At assisted living facilities, nearly 400 residents have tested positive. At least 585 residents from both kinds of facilities have died.
salutations to everyone in these grim times
the president has activated the guard once more to handle instances like this where at risk citizens of Texas have their areas sanitized. we’ve gone into great length for instruction and are prepared to do our jobs efficiently and professionally. currently, we’re expected to be here until the end of july at the soonest, September at the latest
i was about a day away from going home before i got called up, but they sent us here anyway and honestly COVID in the big city is a bit strange and quite sad as well.
we’re gonna get through this y’all, be safe and be strong
Steps Towards Recovery
A Statistics Amalgamation
so, with COVID (hopefully) coming to a close within the next few months, despite our recent increase in cases due to states opening back up...
i figured it'd be appropriate to put some stats up on how the country is doing, where we're going, and spread some sanguine thoughts.
LOANS AND RELIEF
currently, more than 100 million loan accounts in the country are on a relief program that allows the borrower to skip payments to the borrowee. such includes mortgage, rent, student loan, credit card, and auto loan forbearance/payment deferments.
79 million student loans are in relief.
7.3 million auto loans, same sitch.
1.3 million personal loans as well.
and over 5 million mortgage loans are in forbearance.
sadly, there's millions who are just not paying rent, or are seeking credit card relief.
so what's this mean? the fact that so many people are in the 'relief' stage, or otherwise asking for assistance, is going to perturb lenders. they're going to be more cautious making loans moving forward, and will try and balance credit risk with the FED's desire to make credit available.
CARES act runs out in August, to be followed up by the HEROES act soon thereafter. but with how polarized Washington is right now, especially before an election...we'll see how that comes out. if those who are unemployed don't receive the funds they need to stay afloat, then we're going to be in a heap of trouble when it comes to recovery; namely, it'll just be God-awfully slow.
still, though, let's hope for the best and pray that those on Capitol Hill can pass something hastily and efficiently.
deaths, especially in my local state, have been going down. the reported number of cases is definitely still going up; but, at least mortality is declining. definitely a good sign that we're moving to ending this all.
at its peak, we were at ±2,701 deaths per day across the nation on May 6th. as of June 22nd, that has dropped to ±292 per day.
we're still at 2.38 million confirmed cases.
HOTEL OCCUPANCY AND TRAVEL
for anyone in the tourist industry, US hotel occupancy rates are at 41.7% as of last week. a LOT BETTER than the 32.4% as of May 18th. but...still not as good as the 83.8% we were at pre-pandemic.
TSA statistics are tracking 3,055,652 airport travellers as of the week of June 13th. that is, compared to 1,435,067 per the week of May 16th.
so, this means that national business and travel is at least picking back up. of course, travel restrictions aren't going to allow that number to jump back to what it was, but - as with everything - baby steps.
across the nation, we dropped from a 14.7% in April to 13.3% in May.
for my state, we went from 13.4% to 8.9%. for my state, there was a net gain of 45,300 jobs. gaining 58,900 in the private, yet losing 13,700 in the public. the loss from the public sector is mainly because schools; my state is in the 40's for rankings with education, and we're a "right to work" state (which, ironically, means a "right to get fired"). so, teachers are exchanged like underwear. stinky.
check out your unemployment in your local state. try and get jobs that you can do from your own home.
literally, the amount of cash you can make JUST from the comfort of your room is astounding today.
even then, a lot of states are still growing.
RETAIL AND RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY
here's a graph based on the amount of retail and recreational traffic businesses are seeing globally.
everyone's taking steps, slowly, back towards normalcy. except the UK. i'll have to do more research as to why they're not recovering as well in those sectors.
maybe someone from the UK can chime in? i'm only really focusing on the US, so. are your travel restrictions still pretty heavy? is everything still pretty shut down?
let me know, please.
if you're an office user, People per Square Foot was going for 1 person : 350 SF. at the height of COVID-19, that dropped exponentially to 200 SF. a LOT of people downsized, especially in retail as well. however, as we're gradually taking steps back towards pre-pandemic, i'm seeing an absolute explosion in my local sector of the office market. this quarter has been one of the busiest i've ever been out of my two years in the firm i'm with. i hope it keeps going.
this is going to take a hit. after the election (and depending on who wins), a lot of small businesses are going to flop or run with it, depending on their optimism and their current financials. i expect most change to come in by November or December.
so many are on rent relief, and many states have made Evictions illegal. so when those executive orders by the states expire - a lot of mom & pop stores aren't going to be around. corporations, franchisees, etc. are still going to be fine (at least most).
run-off effects of COVID will persist for the next two years, according to most economic forecasts.
small business optimism always takes a hit right before an election. people become uncertain.
depending on who gets elected, we may see a major rise again. as soon as Trump was put into office in 2016, it started that 39 month streak you see mentioned at the top. but as soon as election year hit, and the rumbling of the COVID drums began - there goes that.
even still, i know plenty of small mom & pops that are expanding. if they survived the initial COVID wave, and are still doing well, then they'll undoubtedly make it to the end of the year and beyond. stay strong, and BUY LOCAL!!!!!!
thanks for reading.
all of my sources are from various firms and brokerages across my state and internationally. i take zero credit for all of this.
if you want a really good source for information? check out K.C. Conway - the Red Shoes economist.
so i don't dox myself, i'm not going to be posting those exact sources here.
if you want more information, just shoot me a DM and ill give you the various links, .PDFs, and docs.
stay safe out there, everyone. and have a good day!
One of my coworkers had someone walk in to buy a device and get it set up a few weeks back. They explained it was urgent, because they had just arrived back from Florida and were placed on a two week quarantine, and needed the device to work from home.
Had another client come in and take their mask off because they couldn't stop coughing and presumably they saw it as interference.